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Advan Abogados: Insolvency forecasts – Economic Research – August 2017

Insolvency forecasts – Economic Research – August 2017

Insolvency Forecasts August 2017

Muy interesante: El informe ofrece cifras sobre las previsiones de la insolvencia para 2017 así como su evolución en los últimos años en varios países.

Atradius forecasts insolvencies across advanced markets to fall by 3.0% this year and 2.0% next year, particularly led by an increasingly robust recovery in the eurozone.Insolvency forecasts – Economic Research – August 2017

Summary

  • Atradius presents its new insolvency forecasting model which offers a broader scope of macroeconomic developments to better predict insolvency developments.
  • GDP growth across advanced markets is picking up in 2017 and 2018 supported by strengthening labour markets, higher confidence, and more supportive policies. Downside risks, especially policy uncertainty, have eased but are still concerns.
  • Global business insolvencies are expected to decrease 3.0% this year and 2.0% next year, particularly led by an increasingly robust recovery in the eurozone.

Risks to the insolvency outlook remain tilted to the downside. Disorderly monetary tightening, equity market corrections, and a pronounced slowdown in China decreasing global import demand could all drive upward revisions, especially in 2018. Political uncertainty is also a persistent risk, with Brexit negotiations taking place as well as renegotiations of trade deals in the US.

New Atradius insolvency forecasting model

The Atradius Economic Research team has developed a new model to better predict corporate insolvencies in advanced markets. The foundation of the model is still the same: general business cycle indicators, such as GDP growth, are inversely related to insolvency growth. The predictive power is now improved by incorporating additional significant macroeconomic variables:

The unemployment rate (or changes therein) is an input for health of the labour market
Industrial production growth is a significant forward-looking indicator for business activity and economic performance
As before, this model is two-fold. On top of the quantitative model, expert judgment is applied. Deviations from the model outcome may be recommended by country experts based on other macroeconomic or financial developments, credit conditions, and historical insolvency trends. For further information, a more in-depth, non-technical model description will be released shortly.

Puedes leer el informe completo aquí: http://www.iberinform.pt/FAS?nome=CYC_PREVISIONES_INSOLVENCIA.pdf

AdvanAdvan Abogados: Insolvency forecasts – Economic Research – August 2017